| Food
Security II -African Hunger |
A STRATEGY FOR CUTTING HUNGER IN AFRICA
Commissioned By:
The Technical Committee of the Partnership to
Cut Hunger in Africa
Written by:
Jerome M. Wolgin*
Version March 26, 2001
(Minor typographical revisions made on April 23, 2001.)
Introduction from the Technical Committee of the Partnership to Cut Hunger in Africa
This paper presents a draft diagnosis of the challenges facing countries in sub-Saharan Africa in sharply reducing hunger and poverty on the subcontinent and suggests strategic actions the United States can take to help Africans in that endeavor. The Partnership to Cut Hunger in Africa commissioned this paper as a tool to synthesize what we think we have learned about the challenges from previous studies, many of which were carried out primarily by Africans themselves. A second objective is to solicit feedback from individuals and organizations in Africa and the U.S. about the proposed diagnosis and action plan. The comments we receive will be crucial in developing a final report for presentation by the Partnership to key policy makers and stakeholders at a conference to be held in Washington at the end of June, 2001.
We ask those who read this paper to provide us their comments regarding:
What parts of the paper they agree with;
What parts of the paper they disagree with, and why;
Major omissions in the paper;
Suggestions about what actions should be taken
by:
The U.S. government
U.S. private sector
U.S. non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and foundations to help Africans
reduce hunger and poverty on the continent.
We also would appreciate comments on what actions U.S. agencies and organizations
should not do.
In order to facilitate the comments, we have numbered each paragraph in the
paper, and we ask readers to cite the paragraph number to which their specific
comments apply.
Please send comments to the Partnership Technical committee at following addresses:
e-mail: afhunger@aec.msu.edu
fax: 1-517- 353-1888
postal address:
Technical Committee of the Partnership to Cut Hunger in Africa
c/o Institute of International Agriculture
324 Agriculture Hall
Michigan State University
East Lansing, MI 48824-1039 USA
Thank you very much.
*The author is a senior African development analyst, having served over 20 years in the Africa Bureau of USAID. He was commissioned to write this paper while on leave from the World Bank, where he now serves as lead economist in the Partnership Group. The opinions put forth in the paper reflect the views of the author, with review by members of the technical committee of the Partnership to Cut Hunger in Africa operating as individuals as well as comments received from African colleagues. Hence this paper should not be construed as reflecting the views of USAID, The World Bank, Michigan State University, The University of Illinois, Bread for the World, or any other organizations participating in the Partnership To Cut Hunger in Africa.
Members of the Technical Committee of the Partnership to Cut Hunger in Africa include:
Akin Adesina
Resident Representative for Southern Africa
The Rockefeller Foundation
Harare, Zimbabwe
David Atwood
Deputy Director, G/EGAD/AFS
US Agency for International Development
Washington, DC
George R. Gardner
Senior Agricultural Economist
USAID/AFR/SD/ANRE
Washington, D.C.
Jeff Hill
Agricultural Research Advisor
USAID/AFR-SD
Washington, DC
Julie Howard
Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Michigan State University
East Lansing, MI
T.S. Jayne
Department of Agricultural Economics
Michigan State University
East Lansing, Michigan 48824 USA
Earl Kellogg (ex-officio)
Associate Provost for International Affairs
University of Illinois at U-C
Champaign, IL
John Staatz
Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Michigan State University
East Lansing, MI
Michael Weber
Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Michigan State University
East Lansing, MI
Dennis Weller
Division Chief, Agriculture and Natural Resources
Africa Bureau USAID
Washington, DC
Jerome Wolgin
Principal Economist
World Bank
Washington, DC
A STRATEGY FOR CUTTING HUNGER IN AFRICA
Contents
Executive Summary ………………………………………………………………………..iv
Preface ……………………………………………………………………….…………………...1
Background ………………………………………………………………….……………………1
The Changing African Context ………………..………………….…………………..2
Politics and Governance ……………………...……………………….…………………2
Economic Policy ………………………………………….....…………….…………………3
Increasing Land Pressure …………………………………………….…….…………...4
Urbanization ……………………………………………………….....…….…….…………..4
HIV/AIDS ……………………………………………………………….…......…..…..……..5
The Changing International Context ……………………….……......…..…….5
Globalization …………………………………………………………….………..…...….….5
New Technologies …………………………………………………….…….…….…..….…6
International Capital Flows ……………………………………….….……….….…...7
The End of The Cold War ………………………………………………..…….……..…8
Changing Donor Practices ……………………………………………..…….………...8
Opening OECD Markets ………………………………………………………..……….10
The Hunger Problem ………………………………………………………………..……10
The Dimensions of Hunger in Africa ……………………………………...…...10
Poverty and Hunger ……………………………………………………………...….….11
The Poverty Problem ……………………………………………………………...….…12
The Poverty/Hunger Solution ……………………………………………..……..…13
Accelerating Agricultural Growth As A Strategic Growth Engine ..14
What Is Known about African Agriculture? ………………………………....14
An Agricultural-Based Strategy for Cutting Hunger …………………...18
Staple Food Markets ……………………………………………………………...…...19
Higher Value Domestic Food Products ………………………………..….…..19
Agro-Processing ………………………………………………………………………......20
Export Strategies …………………………………………………………………...…...20
The African Agricultural Export Experience …………………………...…..20
Competitiveness In The New Global Economy …………………..….……23
Changing the Paradigm ……………………………………………………….….…..23
Continue To Reform The Role of The State ………………………….….…24
Develop A Private Sector - Public Sector Partnership …………….…25
Invest in Knowledge and Related Technology Generation ……....27
Invest in Rural Infrastructure …………………………………………………....28
Empower Farmers …………………………………………………………………....…29
Develop More Sophisticated Marketing, Contracting and Risk-Sharing Arrangements ..31
Conclusions ……………………………………………………………………………...…31
Resource Mobilization ……………………………………………………………...….32
Human Capacity in The HIV/AIDS Era …………………………………...….33
Governance ……………………………………………………………………………......34
Towards A U.S. Response ………………………………………………………...…36
LIST OF TABLES
Table I Economic Integration …………………………………………………...…6
Table II Nutritional Measures for Children in Selected African Countries ……………………..11
Table III Poverty and Indicators of Well-being in Kenya in 1997 ...12
Table IV Poverty in 21 African Countries Curing the 1990's …...……13
Table V Agricultural Indicators for Africa, Asia and Latin America ..18
Table VI Africa's Share of World Trade for its Main Export Crops ….21
Table VII Non-Traditional Exports from Selected African Countries..21
Table VIII Infrastructure Indicators by Region …………………………....29
Table IX Distribution of Good Governance …………………………….…....35
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1. Perspective on the Size of Africa ……………………………….....16
A STRATEGY FOR CUTTING HUNGER IN AFRICA
Executive Summary
OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this paper is to lay out a clear and implementable strategy for cutting hunger in Africa over the next fifteen years. It may be too late to achieve the World Food Summit Goals of cutting hunger in half by 2015, but substantial progress can be made if both the African and international communities attack this problem seriously. The current paper is clearly not the end point, but a starting point, a point of departure for a new and intensive discussion between African and American academics, practitioners and political leaders, where the ideas presented here will be reformed and refined.
At the end of that discussion we hope to have achieved two major accomplishments - an agreed-upon strategy for cutting hunger in Africa, and a political commitment from both American and African policy makers to implement that strategy. On the African side, this would require major policy shifts, while on the American side it would require a new commitment to open markets further and to mobilize the resources, public and private, financial and intellectual, needed to support the implementation of this strategy.
CHANGES AND OPPORTUNITIES: Since independence, most Sub-Saharan African countries have made only limited progress in reducing poverty and hunger. Why should Africa and the international community be hopeful today after so many failed efforts in the past? The world has changed a lot in the past few decades, and Africa has as well. There are now new opportunities and new challenges.
In Africa: Old political institutions built on authoritarian models have given way to new democracies. People expect more from their governments than the rhetoric that used to satisfy them. While democratic institutions and behaviors are still nascent and weak, there are reasons to believe that public policies will become more pro-poor over time.
Economic policies have evolved as well. Most countries now understand the importance of macroeconomic stability, open markets and reduced government regulation and control. In agriculture this has tended to mean greater market liberalization and better incentives for farmers, albeit reforms are constantly in danger of being reversed.
Increased urbanization has created larger and more differentiated markets for agricultural products, while on the other hand, population pressure on a limited natural resource base continues.
Finally, the scourge of HIV/AIDS continues to affect African societies in many diverse ways, from reducing income security in old age, to increasing the number of orphans, to reducing available labor, to reducing savings and the desire to save.
World Economy: Meanwhile, the world economy is rapidly changing as well:
Globalization, the increase in economic connectedness, has become a byword. For many, globalization represents a threat to jobs, to culture, to environmental safeguards, to working conditions. For others, however, globalization presents an opportunity to find new markets for new goods at higher prices, and thus to increase both employment and wages. World trade in goods and services has grown from 21% of GDP to 28% in ten years.
Globalization has also meant the integration of financial markets and new flows of private investment funds, both directly, and in the form of portfolio investment, from the North to the South. Private flows dwarf official assistance by a factor of 10:1. However, these flows are volatile and tend to be concentrated in a few important countries.
Globalization has also meant the availability of new technologies, particularly in the areas of biotechnology and informatics, that offer the opportunity for less developed countries to skip over intermediate steps in development by, for example, eschewing the costly investment in land lines and moving directly to wireless technology.
The end of the Cold War has changed the expectations and roles of the Western countries in Africa; the U.S. is now finding new long-term rationales for its relationship, rationales built on economic partnership and global public goods.
At the same time, foreign assistance has declined in real per capita terms and become more compartmentalized; assistance has been shifted from the directly productive sectors such as agriculture to the human development sectors of health and education.
These changes provide new opportunities and new problems. The paper presents a somewhat simple syllogism:
Hunger and malnutrition are largely caused by income poverty;
Income poverty can be overcome by rapid, poverty-reducing economic growth as exemplified by the experiences of East and Southeast Asia;
An important strategy for achieving rapid, poverty-reducing growth is an emphasis on accelerating agricultural growth because: (1) the majority of the poor live in rural areas, and rural livelihoods, while complex, are ultimately dependent on agricultural productivity; (2) agricultural growth has been shown to have large multiplier effects on the economy as a whole; (3) agricultural growth will help keep food prices low, and food makes up about 70% of the things the poor spend their money on; and (4) low food prices can also keep money wages low, thus allowing expansion of employment in export and import-substituting industries;
Demand plays at least as important a role as supply in generating agricultural growth;
A resurgent agriculture is likely to have as its most dynamic sector non-traditional exports, as has been seen in countries such as Uganda, Ghana and Zambia. However, there are important and dynamic market possibilities in adding value to traditional food crops, shifting to higher value food commodities, regional intra-African trade and even traditional exports.
A PROPOSED STRATEGY: The critical issue then is how to accelerate agricultural growth. This paper presents seven critical elements of an agriculture-led poverty-reducing development strategy:
1. Change the paradigm: African countries and their partners from the North must have a long-run vision that sees investment in the rural economy, open markets and dependence on private initiative and investment as the keys to cutting hunger and reducing poverty.
2. Continue to reform the role of the state: In the new global economy, the state has a critical role, but it is a much different role than has traditionally been practiced in Africa. The state must create the physical and institutional infrastructure (regulation, standards, contract enforcement, etc.) that is needed for markets to work effectively.
3. Develop a private sector-public sector partnership: Moreover, the state must enter into partnerships with the private for-profit and non-profit sectors to accomplish the nation's objectives. There are a number of areas, such as agricultural research, where a public-private partnership can reduce the cost and increase the efficiency of the provision of critical services which had been traditionally seen as the responsibility of the government.
4. Invest in technology and knowledge generation: Food and cash crop technology is critical to raising agricultural productivity. A related critical factor in production in the twenty-first century is knowledge. African governments must develop policies such as decontrol of telecommunications which reduce the costs and expand the availability of knowledge. African governments and their partners must invest in all levels of education and encourage private provision of education as well.
5. Invest in rural infrastructure: African governments must reverse years of urban bias and invest in rural areas, particularly in transport, water, electricity and telecommunications. High transaction costs in agriculture due to policy failures, poor infrastructure, and sparse populations undermine competitiveness.
6. Empower farmers: The new democratic experiments allow farmers to organize themselves for the first time in producer controlled cooperatives and other affinity groups which will allow farmers to purchase inputs, sell products, obtain credit, provide advice to members and lobby for policy change effectively. Governments must create the legal and political environment to encourage this development.
7. Develop more sophisticated marketing, contracting and risk-sharing arrangements: Markets in Africa remain fragmented, personalized, and uncertain. Governments must help to improve market information, become more sophisticated in ensuring standards of quality, expand the size of the market by reducing barriers to regional trade, and, above all, develop consistency in policy formulation.
UNDERLYING ISSUES: The paper also deals with three important issues that need to be dealt with if the strategy presented here is to succeed:
Resources: There has been a substantial decline in foreign assistance over the 1990s. While private investment flows have increased elsewhere, they have yet to fill the gap caused in Africa by the decline in assistance. Debt relief under the HIPC initiative will be helpful but is not sufficient. OECD countries must renew their commitment to provide flexible assistance to African countries which now, as the result of political and economic liberalization, are able to use that assistance effectively. It is ironic that foreign aid is declining just when the OECD has committed itself to achieving critical development goals and just when African countries have undertaken deep and painful reform. On the other hand, these reforms need to go deeper if African economies are going to be seen as attractive for increased investment, both domestic and foreign.
HIV/AIDS: There is no doubt that the HIV/AIDS pandemic has the potential to seriously increase poverty and hunger and reduce the capacity for accelerating economic growth in medium to high prevalence countries. At the macroeconomic level, AIDS will seriously reduce the quantity of skilled labor through both death and morbidity and reduce private savings. At the household level, the impact can be severe. Poor households have little margin in terms of savings and income. An AIDS illness can result in increased time spent on caring for the sick person, the loss of labor from the AIDS-infected family member, increased expenditures on health care and on funerals. This is not the paper for a strategy to combat HIV/AIDS. Nevertheless, it is critical that all development activities and programs in Sub-Saharan Africa be designed with conscious forethought on how HIV/AIDS will affect the program's success and how the program will affect the spread of HIV/AIDS.
Governance: Despite the changes over the last decades African governments face a host of difficult problems. How to build the nation-state out of many ethnic groups? How to make government an effective instrument for providing critical economic and social services? How to distribute the benefits of the political system fairly? How to shift allegiance from the party and the person to the state and the government? How to build institutions of accountability, including a free and responsible press? How to make the government smaller and more focused? How to move from a system of rule by men to a system of rule by law? These are extremely difficult problems, but unless Africa solves them, the struggle against poverty and hunger will fail.
So, is this a feasible strategy? Not everywhere, and maybe, not in most African countries at this time. It is probably necessary to begin working on a broad scale with a few African countries that already have some of the prerequisites for such a strategy to work - Uganda, Mali, Mozambique, Ghana, Nigeria, possibly Kenya and Ethiopia, and most importantly, South Africa. In other countries, it may not be possible to implement the full strategic agenda presented here, although many parts of the strategy can be. But this "variable geometry," should be used to Africa's advantage, an opportunity for deep learning and sharing of experiences.
Not for the first time Africa stands at a crossroads. But this may be the last, great chance Africa faces. There are huge opportunities and huge obstacles. Success could not only mean a substantial cutting of hunger in fifteen years, but also the beginning of a virtuous circle that could mean the reduction of poverty, disease and war on a broad and continuing basis. This is a chance that must be seized.
TOWARDS A U.S. RESPONSE: U.S. efforts need to help stimulate African economies, reduce poverty, and help the poor feed themselves. The U.S. must assist African nations to improve the performance of agriculture and the broader food system. Yet development involves much more than economic growth. It involves improving human welfare and allowing all people the opportunity to achieve their full potential. But without broad-based economic growth, African countries will lack the resources to finance their health care systems, schools, and safety-net programs for the destitute. Broad-based economic growth from improvements in agriculture and food can contribute significantly to these and other important development priorities.
Elements of the a new U.S. Strategy will need to be developed further based on feedback from key leaders and organizations in Africa and the U.S. And U.S. assistance to cut hunger in Africa should focus on particular U.S. expertise. There is no quick fix. Economic growth in Africa requires a sustained 15-20 year effort. Medium-term progress can be made and can be measurable by helping African nations to:
1. Develop programs and policies that strengthen farmers, businesses, and markets to compete in the global economy.
2. Strengthen rural education, training, and public institutions.
3. Expand agricultural research and outreach to exploit science-based agriculture and information technologies, stimulate new ties with business, and avoid damage to the environment.
4. Improve rural governance.
5. Link emergency food relief with long-term development.
6. Coordinate food and agricultural programs with actions to combat HIV/AIDS.